UFC Pay-per-view Numbers: Feeding the Monster

It is difficult to pin down exact numbers for UFC PPV buys, but after each event it seems we end up with a fairly accurate estimate. Based on those estimates, I thought it’d be fun to look at the UFC’s recent uptick in PPV buy rates and consider how the numbers will shake out for upcoming events.

First, here’s a look at UFC PPV buy rates since Q1 of 2008:

Over 600,000 buys in bold

2009

UFC 106 (Lesnar vs. Carwin) Vegas
UFC 105 – Free TV (Main event unamed) Manchester
UFC 104 (Machida vs. Rua) Los Angeles
Average =

Q3
UFC 103 (Franklin vs. Belfort) Dallas
UFC 102 (Nogueira vs. Couture) Portland
UFC 101 – 900,000 (Penn vs. Florian) Philadelphia
UFC 100 - 1,720,000 (Lesnar vs. Mir II) Vegas
Average through two events = 1,310,000 buys

Q2
UFC 99 - 360,000 (Franklin vs. W. Silva) Cologne, Germany
UFC 98 - 635,000 (Evans vs. Machida) Vegas
UFC 97 - 625,000 (A. Silva vs. Leites) Montreal, Quebec
Average = 540,000 buys

Q1
UFC 96 - 350,000 (Jackson vs. Jardine) Columbus
UFC 95 - free TV (Sanchez vs. Stevenson) London
UFC 94 - 800,000 (St. Pierre vs. Penn) Vegas
UFC 93 - 320,000 (Henderson vs. Franklin) Dublin, Ireland
Average = 490,000 buys

2008

Q4
UFC 92 - 1,200,000 (Griffin vs. Evans) Vegas
UFC 91 - 1,010,000 (Couture vs. Lesnar) Vegas
UFC 90 - 300,000 (A. Silva vs. Cote) Chicago
UFC 89 - free TV (Bisping vs. Leben) Birmingham
Average = 836,000 buys

Q3
UFC 88 - 640,000 (Liddell vs. Evans) Atlanta
UFC 87 - 625,000 (Lesnar vs. Herring) Minneapolis
UFC 86 - 520,000 (Jackson vs. Griffin) Vegas
Average = 595,000 buys

Q2
UFC 85 - 225,000 (Hughes vs. Alves) London
UFC 84 - 475,000 (Penn vs. Sherk) Vegas
UFC 83 - 525,000 (St. Pierre vs. Serra II) Montreal Quebec
Average = 408,000 buys

Q1
UFC 82 - 325,000 (Silva vs. Henderson) Columbus
UFC 81 - 650,000 (Lesnar vs. Mir) Vegas
UFC 80 - 225,000 (Penn vs. Stevenson) Newcastle
Average = 400,000 buys


Interesting notes:

In 20 PPV events, the promotion has topped the 600,000 buy mark ten times, three of which garnered over one million buys (UFC 91, 92, and 100). In the 20 previous PPV events, UFC 58 to UFC 79, the promotion has six top the 600,000 buy mark and one (UFC 66) surpass one million buys. Prior to UFC 60 (the first to break 600,000 buys) the UFC had not had an event go over 500,000.

In 2008, five of 12 events bested 600,000 buys.

Through eight PPV’s in 2009, five have gone over 600,000 buys.

In 2008, the PPV buys increased steadily from quarter to quarter with Q4 averaging 836,000 and it included a free event, UFC 89, on Spike TV.

Q1 for 2009 began with higher numbers than Q1 of 2008 and Q2 of 2009 averaged much better numbers than Q2 of 2008 (Q2 of 2008 = 408,000, Q2 of 2009 = 540,000)

Thanks to UFC 100, Q3 of 2009 is averaging well over 1 million buys.

The last five Vegas cards have done over 600,000 buys and three topped the one million mark.

UFC 101 in Philadelphia (if 900,000 is indeed the final PPV number) is the highest buy rate in the history of the promotion for a show outside of Vegas.

European shows have traditionally averaged much lower PPV numbers, however the last two (UFC 93 from Dublin, Ireland and UFC 99 from Cologne, Germany) averaged 340,000 buys. Compared to the two prior European PPV shows (UFC 80 from Newcastle, England and UFC 85 from London, England) which averaged 225,000 buys.

Thoughts:

It seems the UFC is becoming a monster regarding the PPV market. The promotion had an outstanding 2008, especially Q4, and obviously built off the end of the year numbers to begin 2009. The momentum continued during the first half of 2009, leading to the mammoth show, UFC 100. The hype from UFC 100 carried over to UFC 101 as it put up huge numbers as well.

So what does this mean for the upcoming events? Just conjecture here, but I see 102 in the neighborhood of 500,000 buys. The numbers will come down to earth a bit, but still half a million buys would establish something of a new baseline, much higher than the 350,000 buys for UFC 96 (the promotion’s least popular U.S. show this year).

I see the numbers for 103 going way up once again. It is a stacked card and will have the benefit of Fight Night 19 only days before which will be followed by the premiere of The Ultimate Fighter season 10 with Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson. This will of course be a great advertising opportunity for 103 and create quite a buzz in the media. Finally, at least some of the under card being shown on Spike TV for free (a first for the promotion) may help boost the PPV numbers. I see 103 in the neighborhood of 750,000 buys. If these numbers are somewhat accurate, it means Q3 of 2009 will average close to a million buys per PPV.

Prior to his destruction of Rashad Evans, Lyoto Machida was not much of a draw for the UFC. Now he is, and I see 104 doing similar numbers to 103.

Amazingly, UFC 106 will be the first event in Vegas since UFC 100 and it will again feature Brock Lesnar. It will be aided by UFC 105 on free TV the week before. I expect it to do at least 1.5 million buys and may best UFC 100’s mark.

These numbers might appear bullish, and they could be, but despite the terrible economy, the UFC pay-per-view numbers have continued to trend upward over the last two years. During that time the promotion has built a fan base that is becoming more and more loyal with each big show.

Former Oklahoma football coach, Barry Switzer talked about building and feeding the monster that was (and is) the OU football program, it looks like Dana White and the UFC are in the process of doing this right now. Since, then OU football has had a few downs to go along with the ups, it’ll be interesting to see if the UFC monster will experience the same or if it will keep on growing at an alarming rate.